III The Gold Supply
It may be stated without hesitation that the effect of the increasing supply of gold upon prices of all bonds, shares, or commodities which may be classed as speculative, is more decided and certain in its operation than any other single factor. The process of readjustment due to this cause would be slow and regular if the principles at issue were universally and clearly understood. Not being generally recognized, however, the changes wrought by what is naturally an insidious factor are, at times, spasmodic and feverish. It is a remarkable fact that whenever a revolution occurs in any economic or financial process which is, by its nature, concealed or recondite, its existence and influence are discovered by a number of students simultaneously but independently. Important reversions or modifications may be submerged for a long period, and suddenly light is offered from all parts of the thinking world. It is probable that this intellectual phenomenon extends to, or is communicated to the financial world, and that marked and drastic changes in the affected quarters represent a belated recognition of forces hitherto unknown, and the readjustment of affairs by those who see first and furthest. That the operations of this minority will be important goes without saying. The faculty to grasp fully and quickly anything salient bearing on financial affairs is the ground-work of riches and consequently the trained minds of great holders of shares or commodities will respond most readily to sound basic arguments, and the greatest holders can often make of their knowledge a two-edged sword. For example, certain large holders of bonds, recognizing the fact that increasing gold production means higher interest rates, and consequently lower prices for bonds, would be able to dispose of bonds to advantage because of the apparent general prosperity growing out of this same production of gold. It may be assumed that in pointing out in interviews, etc., this reign of prosperity, the gentlemen in question would modestly omit to mention that the same influences which were causing high prices and much business in some quarters, were working damage in others.
Something of this kind has been going on in our bond and stock markets of late. The inevitable influence of gold on prices has made itself slowly felt for a long period, but it is only in the last year that a considerable number of individuals whose operations are of importance in the financial world have come to recognize how powerful this influence is. Price changes in divers securities and commodities hitherto unaccounted for, or attributed to wrong influences, have suddenly been explained to a number of important financiers, and a correct understanding of the problem has undoubtedly resulted in radical readjustments in some quarters. With that pertinacity in error which seems to distinguish the ordinary speculator, he has, however, gone on attributing these processes of equilibration to causes which have only a limited bearing on the case. The recent heavy decline in bonds and stocks, for example, was popularly ascribed to political and legislative action against railroads. Scarcity of money was given second place in these deductions, and gold production third place, or no place at all. If we reverse this order of importance and give gold production first place, monetary affairs second place, and political affairs third place, we are nearer the truth. It looks a little ridiculous that the scope of intelligent perspective should be blocked by three thousand miles of water, and that the unthinking majority who ascribe our decline in bonds to local politics should have failed to recognize so potent a fact as that the decline was world-wide; but such is the case. The readjustment in bonds was due to excessive over-production of gold, and it may be safely assumed that so long as this over-production continues to increase rapidly, bonds will continue low in price or, what amounts to the same thing, interest rates will remain high.
As to the importance of a correct understanding on this subject of gold supply and its influence on prices, I quote from Mr. Byron W. Holt’s book “The Gold Supply and Prosperity,” which, I may add, is used as the text book for this chapter. Mr. Holt says:
“This is the great problem that now confronts the financial world and demands solution of every investor. Not to solve it may mean great loss and possible failure. To solve it means success and greatly enhanced wealth for all who now have either a fair share of this world’s goods or who have credit and can intelligently go in debt for a large amount.”
As speculation or investment-speculation, as defined in the introduction to this book, are the subjects under discussion it is the intention to take up, in turn, such points as bear particularly upon price changes of speculative shares and commodities influenced by our increasing supply of gold. The main points to be considered are as follows:
1—The effect upon bonds and preferred stocks having a fixed rate of income.
2—The effect upon common stocks of railroad corporations.
3—The effect upon stocks of industrial corporations.
4—The effect upon speculative commodities—wheat, corn, oats, cotton, etc.
For the purpose of argument it will be assumed in this discussion that our supply of gold is rapidly increasing. We know that such has been the case in recent years, and it is the opinion of most students that this increase may be confidently expected to continue. To quote again from the work already mentioned:
“Both the output and supply of gold are likely to increase for many years.
“While the future output of gold is, of necessity, unknown and uncertain, there is great unanimity of opinion, among mining experts, on this point. It appears to be generally recognized that, during the last twenty years, the industry of gold mining, or rather of gold production, has been established on a very different and much more certain basis than any previously existing. No longer is the output of gold dependent mainly, or even largely, upon placer mining and the chance finds of ‘free’ gold. The supply of gold, in rock, sand, clay, and water, being inexhaustible, it is now possible, by machinery and metallurgical processes, to extract gold, in paying quantities, from many forms of these vast store-houses. To such an extent is this true that the future supply of gold is even more secure than is that of coal, iron, lumber, wheat or cotton.
“Even if prospecting were to stop and attention were to be devoted only to the gold mines and bodies already discovered, and geologically in sight, it is probable that the output of gold would continue to increase for many years. As Mr. Selwyn-Brown, a gold mining expert, tells us in his very interesting article, ‘as the rich surface deposits are being worked out, improvements in mining and metallurgical processes are enabling poorer and poorer deposits to be worked.’ That is, improvements in ‘stamp mills,’ cyanide mills, dredging machines and other gold extracting apparatus and processes are being made so rapidly that it is, every year, becoming profitable to work lower and lower grades of ore, sand and earth. As the grade declines the quantity in sight increases rapidly. In fact there are almost literally mountains of low grade gold ore that can even now be worked profitably. Some of the largest, most productive and most profitable mines of today contain ore averaging less than $3 and, in some instances, only $2 of gold per ton.
“The supply of such ore being inexhaustible the output depends upon the number and size of the mills employed to extract the gold. It is reasonably certain that, for years to come, the improvements in methods and processes of mining will more than keep pace with both the decline in the quality of the ore and the increase in the cost of mining due to rising prices and wages, occasioned by the depreciation of gold.
“In view of all the facts, Mr. Selwyn-Brown’s conclusion that ’a progressive increase each year may confidently be expected’ is conservative. This conclusion, is almost a certainty. The uncertainty lies in the possibility, if not probability, either of discovering many important new mines in the practically unexplored parts of every continent, or of making improvements that will radically reduce the cost of extracting gold. In either case the increase in the output of gold might be not simply arithmetically but geometrically progressive.”
Admitting that the question of gold production is debatable, it remains for the future to develop any radical change, and it will be necessary for the student to decide this point for himself either by the light of facts as yet not established, or by accepting theories as yet not convincingly erected. If a change occurs, or may reasonably be expected, an understanding of the subject from the positive side of the question loses none of its value. The principles involved could be as successfully applied in reading the probable future by modifying or reversing effects, and reconciling them to a modification or reversal in the cause. If, for example, we accept the theory that increased gold production means advancing commodity prices, and find reason later to believe that gold production will cease to maintain its ratio of increase, we may alter our views accordingly so far as this single influence is concerned.