Conspectus of the Author’s Introduction
I What Is Probable Evidence?
1. It differs from demonstration in that it admits of degrees; of all degrees.
1.) One probability does not beget assurance.
2.) But the slightest presumption makes a probability.
3.) The repetition of it may make certainty.
2. What constitutes probability is likeness; in regard to the event itself, or its kind of evidences, or its circumstances.
1.) This daily affords presumptions, evidence, or conviction: according as it is occasional, common, or constant.
2.) Measures our hopes and fears.
3.) Regulates our expectations as to men’s conduct.
4.) Enables us to judge of character from conduct.
3. It is an imperfect mode of judging, and adapted to beings of limited capacities.
4. Where better evidence cannot be had, it constitutes moral obligation, even though great doubts remain.
1.) We are as much bound to do what, on the whole, appears to be best, as if we knew it to be so.
2.) In questions of great moment, it is reasonable to act when the favorable chances are no greater than the unfavorable.
3.) There are numberless cases in which a man would be thought distracted if he did not act, and that earnestly, where the chances of success were greatly against him.